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Flash-Crowd Prediction

Author: Urszula Herman-Izycka
Source: Masters thesis, Vrije Universiteit, July 2006.


Sudden surges of traffic, also known as flash crowds, present a significant problem to Web sites. Current systems deal with flash crowds by offloading a portion of the Web site load to a content delivery network. However, it is hard to determine in advance when the offloading should start. In this thesis, we implement a system capable of predicting rather than detecting a flash crowd. The prediction is based on linear regression analysis of the system load over time. We demonstrate that it is possible to configure our prediction system such that it achieves reasonable results on all the studied real-world traffic load traces.


* The thesis, in PDF (1,267,067 bytes).

Bibtex Entry

  author = 	 {Urszula Herman-Izycka},
  title = 	 {Flash Crowd Prediction},
  school = 	 {Vrije Universiteit},
  address = 	 {Amsterdam, The Netherlands},
  year = 	 {2006},
  month = 	 jul,
  note =         {\url{}}